2013年7月11日星期四

Q & A with Saker Nusseibeh, Hermes


       Nusseibeh has a note argued this week that the number of immigrants who are illegally in the United States, a group that is not completely in official government figures resist, could be a boon for long-term recovery of the nation, especially when plans offer a way to accepted citizenship.

He also suggested that the U.S. shows some qualities of the emerging countries due to their culture of capitalism and the potential of a growing middle class, if the immigration rules are changed.

There are about 11 million people in the United States illegally, according to the department's Office of Homeland Security U.S. Immigration Services.

What led you write notes in the first place?

Saker Nusseibeh: It was in my head for a while, partly because I lived in the U.S. for four years, and if you live there, you notice the population. You can see the potential, when people came into the light.

My argument is that there is a history of these guys come into the ranks of the middle class, which is not observed by analysts. This is an extra boost on the natural tendency of growth of the U.S. legal immigration and natural regeneration.

FN: You draw a comparison between the United States and emerging markets - not just a general idea.

SN: I think when we talk about the emerging markets, we do a lot on the way to the workforce in the emerging markets underpaid middle class tend to speak. The journey then leads the business cycle as the people more of their income on consumption and increases prosperity.

On the other hand, when we talk about the United States, we tend to short-term measures, whether the economy is on the right track or not to speak. It seems to me a point where these two elements exceeded almost all in the case of the United States.

People underestimate the positive impact of immigration. The United States imported talent - there are many people who do a PhD in the United States who were not born there. And it is the illegal immigration that a very large population.

FN: the reform of immigration is a controversial issue that the House of Representatives is currently considering. What are the main benefits that you see?

SN: Putting politics aside, this population is about 7% of the U.S. population and massively underpaid work, because it is in the shadow economy. If you reach an agreement and it is in the private sector more than likely that you will see an increase in their income.

If they are made legal, it is not only that it is cheap labor that they feel safe and yes, continue to send money to where they came from but the fact is that they pay more taxes, more spending and begin to invest in the country - they will buy houses, cars, TVs, etc.

FN: What does all this mean for you as the investor?

SN: I think it makes me long-term positive impact on U.S. equities. And then from a fundamental point of view, I think it's more the middle class, which will be a boost of consumer goods and the real estate market.

I have a long-term bull market in the United States, because I think structurally it is the right place. We need food, it was water, it has got oil, and now shale gas. He has this incredible self-sufficiency in natural resources.

FN: You raise cultural issues on the United States in the note as well - can you explain that?

SN: There is a misconception in the United States - how big it is and part of the culture. My joke be used, so I started my first company and went bankrupt, and a second company went bankrupt and a third company, and it went bust, said a European myself, take a hike and a American would probably save me.

That's the difference - wild capitalism. In this sense, the United States has something in common with the emerging markets than in developed markets.





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